A few weeks ago, Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. was full of praise for his deputy, Vice President Sara Duterte. As Sara resigned from her cabinet position this week, the President's "best friend forever" is set to become his most formidable challenger, and it's only the second year of his six-year term.
To political insiders and analysts, Sara's move wasn't unexpected, given the intensifying rift between the two most influential political families in the Philippines over the past few months. Although this move is unlikely to have any significant policy impact and the market seems largely unaffected, it marks a turning point in the once-ally relationship. It sets the stage for a potential showdown in the midterm elections next year or even the 2028 presidential election.
Sara will pose a significant political challenge to Marcos, with polls indicating that she is more popular than the President and one of the best candidates to succeed him when his term ends in 2028.
The Duterte family has significant influence in the politically crucial southern region of Mindanao. As Marcos publicly clashed with his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, accusing each other of drug use, Marcos' support in the area has notably declined.
